[InstCombine] Whitelist non-refining folds in SimplifyWithOpReplaced

This is an alternative to D98391/D98585, playing things more
conservatively. If AllowRefinement == false, then we don't use
InstSimplify methods at all, and instead explicitly implement a
small number of non-refining folds. Most cases are handled by
constant folding, and I only had to add three folds to cover
our unit tests / test-suite. While this may lose some optimization
power, I think it is safer to approach from this direction, given
how many issues this code has already caused.

Differential Revision: https://reviews.llvm.org/D99027